Two rolls two apart
A fair die is rolled until two consecutive rolls differ by exactly 2 (for example a 3 followed by a 5, or a 6 followed by a 4).
Find the expected number of rolls.
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
What matters after each roll is only the face just rolled. How many faces end the game from each face?
Faces 1, 2, 5 and 6 each have one partner at distance 2; faces 3 and 4 have two. By symmetry, two unknowns are enough.
h
s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. The state of the game is the last face rolled. From an “outer” face (1, 2, 5, 6) one face out of six ends the game; from a “middle” face (3, 4) two do. Two equations, by symmetry.
Step 1: the unknowns. Let be the expected number of further rolls when the last face is outer, and when it is middle.
Step 2: outer face. Take face 1. The next roll ends the game with a 3. Otherwise it is 1, 2, 5 or 6 (outer) with probability , or 4 (middle) with probability : The other outer faces give the same equation: for face 2, the stopping face is 4 and the other middle face is 3.
Step 3: middle face. Take face 3. The game ends with a 1 or a 5. Otherwise it is 2 or 6 (outer) or 3 or 4 (middle), each pair with probability :
Step 4: solve. The first equation gives , the second . So , , and .
Step 5: from the start. The first roll is outer with probability and middle with probability :