St Petersburg with a finite bank
A fair coin is tossed until it first lands heads. If the first head comes on toss , the casino owes you dollars. But the casino has only dollars, so it pays .
What is the expected payout, the fair price of the game?
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
Without the cap, each value of contributes exactly 1 dollar to the expected payout.
The cap applies from on. What is the probability that the first head comes after toss 20, and what is paid then?
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s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. In the uncapped game every outcome contributes 1 dollar to the expectation, so the sum diverges. The cap cuts the sum after 20 terms and replaces the rest by a single term.
Step 1: the uncapped terms. The first head comes on toss with probability . For the payout is , so each of these outcomes contributes for a total of .
Step 2: the capped part. The first head comes after toss 20 with probability (the first 20 tosses are all tails), and the payout is then . This contributes
Step 3. The expected payout is dollars.
The lesson. The uncapped game has an infinite expected value, yet nobody would pay much to play it. With any real bank, the value grows only like the logarithm of the bank: a bank of dollars, about a billion, raises the fair price only to 31 dollars.