A twelve or two sevens
Two fair dice are rolled again and again, and the total is noted each time. A wins as soon as a total of 12 appears. B wins as soon as two consecutive rolls both have total 7.
Find the probability that A wins.
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
Only one thing about the past matters: whether the last total was a 7.
A total of 12 has probability , a total of 7 has probability .
h
s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. The game has two states: the last total was a 7, or it was not (which includes the start). Write the probability that A wins from each state and condition on the next roll.
Step 1: the equations. Let be the probability that A wins from the start (or after any total other than 7), and the probability after a 7. A roll gives 12 with probability , 7 with probability , and something else with probability . In the second line, a 7 right after a 7 means B wins.
Step 2: solve. The first equation gives , the second . Substituting, and .
So A wins with probability . A twelve is six times rarer than a seven, but B needs two sevens in a row, which is rarer still: a pair of consecutive sevens has probability , the same as a twelve, and B's sevens often get interrupted.