The mean of exp of Brownian motion
is a standard Brownian motion with . Find
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
has the standard normal distribution.
Write the expectation as an integral against the normal density and complete the square in the exponent.
h
s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. is standard normal, so this is the mean of a lognormal variable. Completing the square turns the integral into a normal density times a constant.
Step 1. , so
Step 2: complete the square. , so The last integral is : it is the density of .
So the answer is .
The trap. Answering . The exponential is convex, so by Jensen's inequality the mean of is larger than raised to the mean.
In general. For , , so . This is why has constant mean 1: it is a martingale, and it is the reason for the term in the Black-Scholes model.