Beta is not correlation
A stock's daily returns have volatility (standard deviation) . The market's daily returns have volatility , and the correlation between the two is .
Regress the stock's returns on the market's returns (with an intercept). What is the volatility of the residual, the stock's idiosyncratic volatility? Give it in percent: for , type 1.5.
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
The slope is the beta: .
The regression splits the stock's variance into an explained part, , and a residual part.
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s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. The regression splits the stock's variance into a part explained by the market and a residual part. The explained share is , so the residual keeps the share .
Step 1: the beta. A correlation of only still gives a beta of 1, because the stock is twice as volatile as the market.
Step 2: the split. The residual is uncorrelated with the market, so In units of percent squared, , so .
Step 3.
Two traps. Taking the beta to be the correlation (). And forgetting that the regression in the other direction is different: regressing the market on the stock gives slope , so after a move in the stock the best guess for the market is , not .