A hundred-sided die, one dollar per reroll
You roll a fair die with faces . After each roll you may either take the number shown, in dollars, and end the game, or pay 1 dollar and roll again. You may reroll as many times as you like.
With the best strategy, what is the game worth to you (expected payout minus the rerolling fees)?
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
After a reroll you face exactly the same game as at the start. So the best strategy accepts a roll if and only if it is at least some fixed number .
If you accept any roll of or more, how many rolls do you make on average, and what is the average value of the roll you accept?
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s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. The game has no memory: every reroll puts you back at the start, one dollar poorer. So the best strategy accepts any roll of at least some fixed . Compute the value of each and pick the best one.
Step 1: the value of a threshold. Accept any roll of or more. Each roll is accepted with probability , so the number of rolls is geometric with mean , and you pay 1 dollar for every roll after the first. The accepted roll is uniform on , with mean . So
Step 2: the best threshold. Raising by one adds to the average accepted roll but also raises the expected fees, and the fees grow faster and faster. The gain stops at .
Step 3: the value.
Check. With value , rerolling is worth dollars, so you should accept a roll exactly when it is at least , which is the threshold used. The value is the solution of