Two R² values, one joint fit
On one data set, the least-squares regression of on (with an intercept) has , and the regression of on alone has . Nothing is known about how and are related.
The regression of on both and (with an intercept) can then have any in an interval . Find .
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
Adding a regressor can never lower . That gives one end of the interval.
Think of the centred variables as vectors. With one regressor, is the squared cosine of the angle between and the regressor. When is exactly a combination of and ?
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s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. The lower end comes from nesting: the joint model contains each single model. The upper end comes from geometry: the two given angles do not stop from lying in the plane spanned by and .
Set-up. Centre all three variables and view them as vectors. With one regressor, equals the squared correlation, which is the squared cosine of the angle between the two vectors. So where is the angle between and . The joint is the squared cosine of the angle between and the plane spanned by and .
Lower end. The joint fit can always set the coefficient of to zero, so its is at least . This is reached when carries no information about beyond what already gives, for example with uncorrelated with both and , and chosen so that . So .
Upper end. Place and in a plane that contains , at angles and from it, on opposite sides. Both given correlations hold, and are not collinear, and lies in their span, so the joint fit is perfect. So .
Answer.
The usual trap. Adding the two values gives . That is the joint only when and are uncorrelated. In general, with the correlations of with and , and as ranges over the values that keep the correlation matrix valid, this sweeps the whole interval .