One extra coin
Alice tosses fair coins and Bob tosses fair coins. What is the probability that Alice gets strictly more heads than Bob?
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
Compare Alice's first coins with Bob's coins. There are three cases: Alice is ahead, behind, or level. What does her last coin change in each case?
Alternatively: Alice has more heads than Bob, or more tails than Bob. Can both happen? Can neither happen?
h
s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. Alice has one more coin than Bob, so she must have either strictly more heads or strictly more tails than him, never both. Heads and tails play symmetric roles, so each case has probability .
Step 1: exactly one of two events. Let be Alice's heads and tails and Bob's. Since and , Two integers adding up to : exactly one of them is at least . So exactly one of the events and happens.
Step 2: symmetry. Swapping heads and tails on every coin does not change the joint law (the coins are fair), and it turns one event into the other. So both have the same probability, and that probability is .
The other route. Compare Alice's first coins with Bob's. By symmetry, “Alice ahead” and “Bob ahead” have the same probability , and “level” has probability . Alice wins if she was ahead, or if they were level and her last coin is heads: