The last passenger's seat
A plane has seats and passengers, each with an assigned seat. They board one at a time in order. The first passenger has lost their ticket and sits in a seat chosen uniformly at random. Every later passenger sits in their own seat if it is free, and otherwise in a free seat chosen uniformly at random.
What is the probability that the last passenger sits in their own seat?
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
Try it with and then passengers. Do you see a pattern?
Whenever someone has to choose at random, only two seats really matter: the first passenger's seat and the last passenger's seat. Which one gets taken first?
h
s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. The whole process ends as soon as someone sits in seat (the first passenger's seat) or seat (the last passenger's seat). Every random choice treats those two seats the same way, so each is equally likely to be taken first.
Step 1: what decides the outcome. Call seat the first passenger's seat and seat the last passenger's seat.
- If someone sits in seat before seat is taken, every later passenger finds their own seat free, so the last passenger gets seat .
- If someone sits in seat first, the last passenger cannot get their seat.
When passenger boards, exactly one seat is left, and it is seat or seat : any other seat would have been taken by passenger at the latest.
Step 2: symmetry. Each random choice is uniform over the free seats. As long as neither seat nor seat has been taken, both are free, and a random choice picks seat exactly as often as seat . Choices of other seats only postpone the decision. So the first of the two seats to be taken is equally likely to be either.
Step 3. The last passenger gets their own seat with probability , whatever the number of passengers (at least ).
Check with 3 passengers. Passenger picks seat (prob. , success), seat (prob. , failure), or seat (prob. ), in which case passenger picks seat or with probability each. Total: .