Exactly half heads
100 fair coins are tossed. Estimate the probability of getting exactly 50 heads, without a calculator. An answer within of the exact value is accepted.
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
The exact value is . Approximate it.
The number of heads has mean 50 and standard deviation 5. Near its centre, a binomial looks like a normal density.
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s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. The number of heads is close to a normal with mean 50 and standard deviation 5. The probability of one value is about the normal density at its centre.
Step 1: the normal approximation. With , the normal density at the mean is , and a single integer value occupies a width of 1. So
Step 2: the same with Stirling. gives , so with the probability is about again.
Step 3: how good is it? The exact value is . The approximation is off by about , a relative error near .
The point. Even the single most likely count happens less than 8% of the time. The chance of exactly half heads in tosses falls like .