Split and discard the smaller pile
A stack has cards, where is chosen uniformly from . Alice and Bob alternate, Alice first. A move splits the current stack into two piles and throws away the smaller one (either one if they are equal). So from cards you can move to any with . A player who cannot move, facing a stack of 1, loses.
Both play optimally. Find the probability that Alice wins.
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
Work out who wins for small : 1, 2, 3, 4, ... Which values are losing for the player to move?
The losing values are
h
s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. The losing positions for the player to move are exactly . Alice wins unless the starting stack is one of those.
Step 1: from , every move goes to a winning position. From the possible moves are , and none of these numbers has the form . So the opponent always receives a non-losing position.
Step 2: from any other , you can move to . If , move to . That is allowed: , and because .
Step 3: by induction, is losing for the player to move exactly when .
Step 4: count. Up to 1000 the losing values are : nine of them. So Alice wins with probability