The missing regressor
A return is generated by where and each have mean and variance , their correlation is , and the noise has mean and is independent of .
An analyst regresses on only (with an intercept), using a very large sample. What slope do they find?
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
With a large sample, the least-squares slope converges to .
h
s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. The left-out factor is correlated with , so part of its effect is credited to . The size of that extra part is the true coefficient of times the slope of on .
Step 1: covariance. By bilinearity and independence of the noise,
Step 2: slope. , so the slope converges to .
The general formula. If and is omitted, the slope on converges to Here the bias is . The bias vanishes only if the omitted variable has no effect () or is uncorrelated with the included one (). A large sample does not help: the estimate is consistent for the wrong number.