Where the sample correlation is most biased
For a sample of size from a bivariate normal distribution with correlation , the sample correlation satisfies, to first order,
For which is this downward bias largest in size?
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
Maximise on .
Set the derivative to zero.
h
s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. The bias is proportional to : it vanishes at (by symmetry) and at (a perfect correlation is estimated perfectly), so it peaks in between.
Step 1. has derivative .
Step 2. The derivative vanishes at , and increases before and decreases after, so this is the maximum.
Size. At the peak, , so the bias is about : for , about .
Why it is biased at all. The sample covariance is unbiased, but the sample correlation divides it by the product of two sample standard deviations, a nonlinear operation. Unbiasedness does not survive nonlinear transformations, and here the result is pulled towards 0.