Back at the start of a tetrahedron
A bug starts at vertex A of a regular tetrahedron and walks along its edges. At each vertex it picks one of the three edges uniformly at random, possibly going back the way it came.
Find the probability that it is at A after exactly 7 edges.
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
Let be the probability of being at A after edges. If the bug is not at A, it reaches A at the next step with probability .
. Solve this recurrence.
h
s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. From A the bug always leaves; from any other vertex it reaches A with probability . So the probability of being at A obeys a one-line recurrence.
Step 1: the recurrence. With ,
Step 2: solve. The fixed point is . The difference is multiplied by at each step, so
Step 3. For :
Check by stepping. , , , , , , . The values oscillate around and settle there quickly.