How many to ask
You want to estimate an unknown proportion with a confidence interval of the usual normal form
What is the smallest sample size that guarantees a half-width of at most , whatever the value of ?
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
The half-width is largest when is largest. Where is that?
h
s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. Guard against the worst case. The product is at most , so size the sample for that value.
Step 1: worst case. , with equality at . So the half-width is at most .
Step 2: solve.
The smallest such is .
Rule of thumb. Halving the margin of error requires four times as many observations, since the half-width scales like . A margin of points needs about people, point about .