Who gets the first ace
A shuffled 52-card deck is dealt one card at a time, alternately to A and B, starting with A. So A gets cards 1, 3, 5, ... and B gets cards 2, 4, 6, ...
Find the probability that the first ace dealt goes to A.
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
Find the probability that the first ace is the -th card dealt. It decreases with .
The first ace is at position when the four aces occupy position and three of the later positions.
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s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. The answer is not . The first ace is more likely to come early than late, and A always receives the earlier card of each pair, so A has a small edge.
Step 1: the first ace at position . The positions of the four aces are a uniform random set of 4 of the 52 positions. The first ace is at position when one ace is at and the other three are among the positions after it:
Step 2: why A has the edge. These probabilities decrease with . A gets positions and B gets , so pairing position with , A's position always has the larger probability. So A's total is more than .
Step 3: the exact value. A wins when is odd. Writing , which runs over the odd numbers from 3 to 51, (The 25 terms of the sum can be added by hand; their total, together with that of the even terms, is .)
The trap. “By symmetry, .” The situation is not symmetric: A is always dealt first in each round.