Estimating the endpoint
You observe , independent and uniform on , where is unknown. The maximum likelihood estimator of is .
Find the constant such that is an unbiased estimator of .
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
for . Find from this.
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Idea. The maximum can never exceed , so it underestimates on average. Compute its mean and scale it up.
Step 1: distribution of the maximum. The maximum is at most exactly when all four observations are, so
Step 2: its mean. Using the tail formula,
Step 3. requires .
Intuition. Four points split into five gaps, and by symmetry each gap has mean . The maximum misses the last gap, so it sits at on average. With observations the correction is .