The Chevalier's double sixes
A pair of fair dice is rolled times. Find the smallest for which the probability of at least one double six is greater than .
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
Compute the probability of no double six in rolls.
You need . Use , or compare and directly.
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s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. “At least one” is easiest through its complement: the probability of no double six in rolls is , and we need it below .
Step 1. We need
Step 2: check. So .
The history. The Chevalier de Méré knew that betting on at least one six in 4 rolls of one die was favourable (). He reasoned that a double six is 6 times rarer, so 24 rolls should be just as good, and lost money. The chance does not scale in proportion: the question led Pascal and Fermat to start probability theory.