Neighbours of the same rank
A standard 52-card deck (13 ranks, 4 cards of each) is shuffled uniformly at random.
Find the expected number of positions , from 1 to 51, where card and card have the same rank.
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
One indicator per pair of neighbouring positions.
Given the card in position , how many of the other 51 cards share its rank?
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s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. Write the count as a sum of 51 indicators, one per pair of neighbouring positions. Each has the same probability, and expectation is linear.
Step 1. For neighbouring positions and : whatever card is in position , the card in position is equally likely to be any of the other 51 cards, and 3 of them have the same rank. So the pair matches with probability .
Step 2.
In general. With suits the answer is , whatever the number of ranks. The probability that there is at least one matching pair is much harder to compute; it is about 95.5%.