Three hundred parachutes
Three hundred parachutes are tested independently and every one of them opens. Let be the probability that a parachute fails.
Find the exact one-sided 95% upper confidence bound for : the value of for which the probability of seeing no failure in 300 tests is exactly .
Fractions, decimals with at least 3 significant digits, and expressions such as sqrt(2)/2, e^-1 or pi/4.
With failure probability , all 300 parachutes open with probability .
For the quick approximation, use and .
h
s Shown after a correct answer. Revealing it first marks the problem as seen, not solved.
Idea. Any failure probability larger than the bound would make “no failure in 300 tests” an event with less than 5% probability, so such values are rejected. The bound solves .
Step 1. Solving gives
Step 2: the rule of three. Taking logarithms, , and for small , so . In general, after trials with no failure, the 95% upper bound is about .
The lesson. Zero failures does not mean zero risk. With 300 clean tests you can only say, with 95% confidence, that the failure rate is below about 1%.